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A key numerical weather prediction technology today is ensembles, in which we run our models many times, while slightly different starting points or model physics. Virtually of the models available to forecasters locked on to a consistent solution by mid-week. A somewhat different story, with this year falling back to fourth place (yes, still impressively wet!). The record winter talk was started by my colleagues at the National Weather Service, who noted in their twitter feed that during the last 24 hr Seattle had achieved a record rain total f